The Cloud Computing Revolution - Your Job Will Disappear
This is a re-write of posts I did on LinkedIn last night, and worked it into a blog post on my other blog.
If you are an IT or Dev Ops person, in other words a developer, programmer, system administrator, project manager or DBA, I strongly advise you to get on Google and research this issue now, or you will wind up permanently unemployable. Since many of you are my customers, it is in my interest to tell you of the huge changes that are happening in the IT world.
NB: Unemployed people cannot buy things.
Here is the article:
Don't dismiss it, unless you want to spend your time holding up a cardboard sign at an intersection. Our jobs, our livelihoods, are in immediate and unstoppable jeopardy, from a threat most of us do not understand and don't know about: Cloud Computing = Managed Services.
The last two days have been revelations. I'll get into details a little further down.
First, if you are a developer, programmer, system administrator, DBA, etc., i.e. a member of a Dev Ops team, an "individual contributor", read the above article in full and right now.
What it says (article over a year old) is that cloud services (i.e. managed services, other names) are taking over the market. I'm sure there are many such articles.
Before yesterday, I would have scoffed, saying something like: "Oracle isn't going anywhere!".
That statement, while true, is not the point. Oracle isn't going anywhere, except to the cloud.
I'll be going to the unemployment line, unless I get with the program. So will you.
Why do I believe it?
Because yesterday, I discovered that all the effort I was putting into my website was a total waste of time. There are abundant, inexpensive and excellent templates for websites available that require no knowledge of HTML, Javascript, PHP or CSS at all, and have point-and-click interfaces, so that a person with nearly no training can build a beautiful and highly functional website in a matter of days, with no experts used at all. They just configure (a much less technical task) and then start creating pages. What used to take months now takes days, and is orders of magnitude less expensive.
The only web developers who will be left will be template-makers. The templates take care of everything a business might need, including mobile devices and SEO.
Similarly, the same is happening in the realm of development (as in Java and C++ front-end development) and (Aaaaarrrrgh!!!!) database back ends.
Ultimate result: All the people who depend on Dev Ops now for their livelihood will find a shrinking job market, and soon. Cloud services is massively disruptive to the market that feeds us, our families, our loved ones, our friends. We're becoming obsolete, fast, fast, fast. There will be far fewer positions available.
Soon, very soon, companies won't need their own UNIX system admins and Oracle DBAs.
They will buy managed services direct from Oracle for both at 10% of the current cost. They won't need Java developers or web developers. They can hire inexpensive business people who know how to use the managed services and can churn out the necessary applications for a fraction of the cost and using a fraction of the people.
No more surly SysAdmins and DBAs. No more expensive developers. Our replacements will need only a two-year associate's degree. Within a few years, their replacements will be high-school kids.
With people costs at about 90% of a typical IT shops costs, the companies are welcoming the incoming cloud changes. They can cut their headcount drastically, keep the business running, and concentrate on business activities rather than on infrastructure.
From their point of view, what's not to love?
Spread this message to your clueless and hyper-nerdy technical friends, immediately. Their days in the job marketplace are numbered, the cloud is taking over, FAST, and the smart people will find the few remaining places helping to either build the cloud tools or in sales of the cloud tools. In only a few years, there will be far fewer IT jobs.
I hope you are paying attention.
Cloud computing is a massively disruptive set of technologies aimed straight at your livelihood, your jobs, and it cannot be stopped. It's so much cheaper and easier, the people who hire you now won't even think about you, your families, your lives. Instead, they will think about getting rid of 90% of the things that keep them up at night, in other words, you.
Get knowledgeable about it, see what you can do to get ahead of the new wave instead of having to respond to it. About 10% of you will be able to get jobs actually creating cloud services. Maybe another 20% of you will get sales support positions, with travel required, to help sell the cloud revolution to companies who haven't understood it yet.
The rest of you will be permanently and completely unemployed and unemployable. Move FAST. Don't believe me? Get on Google, and start researching. It'll scare the holy hell out of you, and it should.
I was stupid and obtuse enough to think that "cloud services" was only online storage. WRONG! It's total, extremely complete, automation that will take your jobs away, suddenly and forever.
If you are an IT or Dev Ops person, in other words a developer, programmer, system administrator, project manager or DBA, I strongly advise you to get on Google and research this issue now, or you will wind up permanently unemployable. Since many of you are my customers, it is in my interest to tell you of the huge changes that are happening in the IT world.
NB: Unemployed people cannot buy things.
Here is the article:
Don't dismiss it, unless you want to spend your time holding up a cardboard sign at an intersection. Our jobs, our livelihoods, are in immediate and unstoppable jeopardy, from a threat most of us do not understand and don't know about: Cloud Computing = Managed Services.
The last two days have been revelations. I'll get into details a little further down.
First, if you are a developer, programmer, system administrator, DBA, etc., i.e. a member of a Dev Ops team, an "individual contributor", read the above article in full and right now.
What it says (article over a year old) is that cloud services (i.e. managed services, other names) are taking over the market. I'm sure there are many such articles.
Before yesterday, I would have scoffed, saying something like: "Oracle isn't going anywhere!".
That statement, while true, is not the point. Oracle isn't going anywhere, except to the cloud.
I'll be going to the unemployment line, unless I get with the program. So will you.
Why do I believe it?
Because yesterday, I discovered that all the effort I was putting into my website was a total waste of time. There are abundant, inexpensive and excellent templates for websites available that require no knowledge of HTML, Javascript, PHP or CSS at all, and have point-and-click interfaces, so that a person with nearly no training can build a beautiful and highly functional website in a matter of days, with no experts used at all. They just configure (a much less technical task) and then start creating pages. What used to take months now takes days, and is orders of magnitude less expensive.
The only web developers who will be left will be template-makers. The templates take care of everything a business might need, including mobile devices and SEO.
Similarly, the same is happening in the realm of development (as in Java and C++ front-end development) and (Aaaaarrrrgh!!!!) database back ends.
Ultimate result: All the people who depend on Dev Ops now for their livelihood will find a shrinking job market, and soon. Cloud services is massively disruptive to the market that feeds us, our families, our loved ones, our friends. We're becoming obsolete, fast, fast, fast. There will be far fewer positions available.
Soon, very soon, companies won't need their own UNIX system admins and Oracle DBAs.
They will buy managed services direct from Oracle for both at 10% of the current cost. They won't need Java developers or web developers. They can hire inexpensive business people who know how to use the managed services and can churn out the necessary applications for a fraction of the cost and using a fraction of the people.
No more surly SysAdmins and DBAs. No more expensive developers. Our replacements will need only a two-year associate's degree. Within a few years, their replacements will be high-school kids.
With people costs at about 90% of a typical IT shops costs, the companies are welcoming the incoming cloud changes. They can cut their headcount drastically, keep the business running, and concentrate on business activities rather than on infrastructure.
From their point of view, what's not to love?
Spread this message to your clueless and hyper-nerdy technical friends, immediately. Their days in the job marketplace are numbered, the cloud is taking over, FAST, and the smart people will find the few remaining places helping to either build the cloud tools or in sales of the cloud tools. In only a few years, there will be far fewer IT jobs.
I hope you are paying attention.
Cloud computing is a massively disruptive set of technologies aimed straight at your livelihood, your jobs, and it cannot be stopped. It's so much cheaper and easier, the people who hire you now won't even think about you, your families, your lives. Instead, they will think about getting rid of 90% of the things that keep them up at night, in other words, you.
Get knowledgeable about it, see what you can do to get ahead of the new wave instead of having to respond to it. About 10% of you will be able to get jobs actually creating cloud services. Maybe another 20% of you will get sales support positions, with travel required, to help sell the cloud revolution to companies who haven't understood it yet.
The rest of you will be permanently and completely unemployed and unemployable. Move FAST. Don't believe me? Get on Google, and start researching. It'll scare the holy hell out of you, and it should.
I was stupid and obtuse enough to think that "cloud services" was only online storage. WRONG! It's total, extremely complete, automation that will take your jobs away, suddenly and forever.
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