The Bell Curve and your chances of success, part II
In the previous post on this topic,
I said, in essence:
Revolution not Evolution - How Cloud Computing Differs
The tech revolution could change (or erase) your job by 2020
Nobody Knew How Big a Deal the Cloud Would Be — They Do Now
How is cloud computing affecting employment?
What is cloud computing?
Clouds ahead: What an IT career will look like five years out
Slowly, after denial dissipates, you begin to get it. They are automating your job, too. We are all in a game of musical chairs and the remaining chairs are the jobs that are left.
Some jobs will get eliminated before others. I expect web developers have already experienced significant market shifts. Java programmers, a very common skill, will start to feel it soon. It may be happening now, but in an invisible, piecemeal fashion. System Administrators will feel it sometime after that. DBAs will be affected later. For all these job categories, the smart ones will have migrated to cloud companies long before the jobs evaporate.
Private companies most dependent on scores of IT workers may find one cloud service that eliminates the lot. Government, ever timid to innovate, will come last, but they will try to replace their contractors with employees first. When that doesn't work (and it probably won't), their next option will be to search for a cloud option that will solve most of their problems in a matter of months.
By the time they get around to asking that question, there will be many providers of exactly what they need. The President, being a businessman, might very well order the agencies to evaluate cloud computing solutions to fix massive budget problems.
Where is the Bell Curve, Phil ?!? It's right here, where it always has been:
* The point: it isn't where you are now. The new Bell Curve is effectively in another universe for most of you. For your own good, research what is happening in the IT universe. Act as though you will be laid off tomorrow. Many of you will.
Can you get a job with one of the cloud companies now? Do it! They are not hiring contractors. Some of them "try before buying", and that means W2 contractors, for a temporary time; after that, it's either hire on as an employee or go away. 1099 / C2C contractors are going away. Count on it.
Please understand. I have worked very hard all my life. I am older, and not looking forward to the changes I must face. I have great sympathy for all of you, for your spouses who depend on you, for your children and dependents. I'm in the same boat.
I said, in essence:
- Employers prefer employees in the middle of the performance range (average +/- 1 standard deviation) who are competent enough but not too expensive. Add to this that the company has to need what you do *.
- We've all been asleep at the switch, lulled by the comfort and convenience of the job we've held for a long time. That is changing, and not for the better, right now.
- While there are still a few high-paying jobs requiring high levels of skill, the number of those jobs is shrinking and will continue to shrink.
- Many of us will be caught off guard and will lose our livelihoods, thanks to the wonderful, disruptive cloud computing revolution.
Revolution not Evolution - How Cloud Computing Differs
The tech revolution could change (or erase) your job by 2020
Nobody Knew How Big a Deal the Cloud Would Be — They Do Now
How is cloud computing affecting employment?
What is cloud computing?
Clouds ahead: What an IT career will look like five years out
Slowly, after denial dissipates, you begin to get it. They are automating your job, too. We are all in a game of musical chairs and the remaining chairs are the jobs that are left.
Some jobs will get eliminated before others. I expect web developers have already experienced significant market shifts. Java programmers, a very common skill, will start to feel it soon. It may be happening now, but in an invisible, piecemeal fashion. System Administrators will feel it sometime after that. DBAs will be affected later. For all these job categories, the smart ones will have migrated to cloud companies long before the jobs evaporate.
Private companies most dependent on scores of IT workers may find one cloud service that eliminates the lot. Government, ever timid to innovate, will come last, but they will try to replace their contractors with employees first. When that doesn't work (and it probably won't), their next option will be to search for a cloud option that will solve most of their problems in a matter of months.
By the time they get around to asking that question, there will be many providers of exactly what they need. The President, being a businessman, might very well order the agencies to evaluate cloud computing solutions to fix massive budget problems.
Where is the Bell Curve, Phil ?!? It's right here, where it always has been:
Can you get a job with one of the cloud companies now? Do it! They are not hiring contractors. Some of them "try before buying", and that means W2 contractors, for a temporary time; after that, it's either hire on as an employee or go away. 1099 / C2C contractors are going away. Count on it.
Please understand. I have worked very hard all my life. I am older, and not looking forward to the changes I must face. I have great sympathy for all of you, for your spouses who depend on you, for your children and dependents. I'm in the same boat.
May God be with you.
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