Texas and US Economic Outlook

This report on the Texas Economic Outlook June 2019 from Texas A&M is recent, full of data and appears both objective and complete. Here's a very brief 2019 outlook for the United States. Wage growth in Austin appears to be accelerating due to the tight labor market.

In a genuinely red-hot labor market, wages go up noticeably. I'm not seeing it myself. Neither are other reporters. There are reasons for this. Lots of reasons.

Take-aways:
  1. The tight labor market is a mixed blessing. Some economic reporters don't buy it. For most, it's easy to get a job, relatively speaking, but it is harder for your company to hire needed people. Good times for individuals are bad times for employers. It's complicated. Not everyone benefits.
  2. Overall economic growth is slowing. The trade war with China is one of several reasons.
  3. There are more and more recession warnings. Some believe these are false alarms. Other opinions are mixed.
  4. This is probably a good time to change jobs for the better. You'd better pick a good company, because recessions have a nasty habit of causing layoffs, and new employees who are not viewed as mission critical are often the first to go.
Conclusions: I'd say it is a good time to get a better job, probably a poor time to own a business that needs expensive specialist experts, and quite possibly an excellent time to start a business that can weather (and is designed to take advantage of) a likely coming economic recession.


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